Monday, October 15, 2007

Can John Howard avoid the iceberg, or is he already sunk?

Can John Howard stage the biggest comeback by an incumbent Prime Minister in the history of Australia? All this year the opinion polls have been pointing to an A.L.P. victory, with some newspapers using headlines such as RUDDSLIDE! If we are to believe the polls we might as well not bother having the election at all, but simply hand over the keys to The Lodge to Kevin Rudd. But, of course, it’s not that simple. Opinion polls are not necessarily reliable indicators of election results. They can change dramatically during the course of an election campaign, and sometimes they don’t even agree with each other. However, the fact is the opinion polls have all been consistent all year. The fact is that no other incumbent Prime Minister has come from so far behind to win. The fact is that all the available evidence points to a Kevin Rudd led Labor victory. There is one more fact to consider. If anyone can perform such a miraculous comeback John Howard is your man. His determination and skill are not to be underestimated. I suspect, however, that many voters have already decided that it’s time for this government to go, and it would take an extraordinary development to turn that around.

So what do you think? Is it too late for John Howard?

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

It does appear too late. It looks like Labor will sweep this one in by taking the focus off the ability of the Coalition to govern and telling people it's time to change. Everyone who remembers the last "It's Time" campaign by Labor will be very scared right now...

Nichelle said...

Good words.